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MARKET & STRATEGY UPDATE | SEPTEMBER 18, 2026

Nasdaq Rallies Nearly 1,000 Points — Is Another 4-Day Move Developing?

The Nasdaq-100 futures rallied nearly 1,000 points from Wednesday's low to Friday's high, creating a setup that looks increasingly similar to the beginning of the July 30–August 4 rally.

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Nasdaq-100 futures moved nearly 1,000 points from Wednesday's low to Friday's high.

This move reminds me of the beginning of the four-day rally from July 30 through August 4 — a period in which the final two trading sessions were extremely favorable for the 18 System Portfolio NQ.

The 18 System Portfolio NQ is the setup for Monday's trade next week.

 

After the rally off Wednesday's lows, Nasdaq-100 futures finished the week approximately 1,400 points below their all-time highs. That raises an interesting question going into the new week:

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Could this two-day rally develop into another four-day move — or longer — toward new all-time highs?

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The July 30–August 4 Comparison

The four-day rally from July 30 through August 4 generated approximately $83,000 in hypothetical profits for the 18 System Portfolio NQ.

What stands out even more is where those gains occurred. The final two sessions — Monday, August 3 and Tuesday, August 4 — generated approximately $76,000 of the hypothetical four-day total.

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$83K Hypothetical 4-Day Portfolio Gain

$76K Hypothetical Gain August 3–4

1,600 Approx. NQ Range August 3–4

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FOUR-DAY RALLY STRUCTURE

The Biggest Opportunity Developed Late in the Move

Rally Period	Approx. NQ Range
July 30–31	1,500 points
August 3–4	1,600 points

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Why the Current Setup Is Interesting

We are extremely overdue — although certainly not guaranteed — for another stretch of favorable intraday price action similar to what developed during August 3–4.

The significance is not simply that Nasdaq is rallying. It is the potential alignment between the market cycle and the portfolio performance cycle.

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PORTFOLIO CYCLE

The symmetry between the current market cycle and the portfolio performance cycle lines up particularly well for a potential drawdown-entry opportunity.

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Moving Beyond the Summer Doldrums

Traders have worked through the August summer doldrums, the Labor Day holiday period, the wait for inflation numbers, and finally the September FOMC decision.

The market now appears to be rotating toward a period of greater certainty as September comes to an end and we move toward October — historically one of my favorite trading months.

For systematic trading, the key question is not whether stocks move higher or lower. The key question is whether we begin seeing larger and more persistent intraday price movement that gives multiple independent strategies opportunities to participate.

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MACRO BACKDROP

Rates, Inflation and Asset Prices

The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday. The inflation backdrop remains important, but a modest rate adjustment by itself does not dramatically change the longer-term inflation picture.

Stocks have increasingly acted as one destination for capital as nominal asset prices rise. Much higher interest rates could eventually alter that dynamic, but so far the equity market has remained remarkably resilient.

Crude oil moving above $100 and higher long-term interest rates have had relatively little effect on stock prices so far, with major equity indexes remaining close to record levels.

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Going into the new week: the question is whether Friday's momentum develops into a larger multi-day move and whether that produces the type of intraday opportunity that has historically been favorable for the portfolio.

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DAILY REPORT

Hypothetical Trading System Signals for September 18, 2026

Results shown are hypothetical and do not represent actual client-account performance.

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``` Risk Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Actual results may differ materially from hypothetical results. Futures trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, whether actual or hypothetical, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Drawdown figures are based on end-of-day calculations and do not reflect intraday drawdowns. Only risk capital should be used for futures trading. ```