Trading System Signals for September 21, 2026
Monday produced the second-best day in the historical record of the 18 System Portfolio NQ, with hypothetical signals totaling +$50,965. The strongest historical day remains August 4, 2026.
Year-to-date 2026 hypothetical performance is now pacing approximately +$275,000, generally in line with the annual performance levels seen from 2023 through 2025.
18 System Portfolio NQ Annual Performance
Monday’s breakout was a market move we had been anticipating based on both the portfolio drawdown cycle and the broader Nasdaq market structure.
Following last week’s FOMC meeting, the Nasdaq first broke below the lower boundary of the trading range on Wednesday before reversing sharply. By Monday, the market had moved through the upper end of the range that had contained prices from August 4 through September 15.
That compression was historically unusual. By several measures, the Nasdaq-100 had remained more tightly compressed around the August 4 session—a roughly 2.5% daily range—than around any comparable session in the past 30 years.
In Friday’s Daily Report, we discussed the possibility that Monday and Tuesday could produce a directional move resembling the August 3–4 sequence. Those two sessions accounted for much of the strongest four-day move we observed from July 30 through August 4.
Out-of-Sample Performance
The 18 System Portfolio NQ was released in May 2025. Performance since that release represents out-of-sample hypothetical signals.
The 2026 market environment has been characterized by alternating regimes: sharp volatility surrounding major news events, followed by extended periods of price compression. That combination has created very different opportunities for directional and mean-reversion strategies throughout the year.
Monday was a strong session across several portfolios. The Diversified Portfolio 57 — NQ Only generated the largest hypothetical gain, while Gap Continuation 2020 provided additional strategy diversification within the Two System Portfolio NQ.
Hypothetical Trading System Signals — September 21, 2026
| Portfolio / System | Hypothetical Result |
|---|---|
| 18 System Portfolio NQ | +$50,965 |
| 7 System Portfolio NQ | +$21,485 |
| 3 System Portfolio NQ | +$12,640 |
| 2 System Portfolio NQ | +$3,415 |
| Diversified Portfolio 57 — NQ Only | +$59,495 |
What Comes Next?
The next question is whether the Nasdaq can extend the move into a fourth consecutive session, similar to what occurred on August 4—the fourth day of the July 30–August 4 advance.
The August 5 through September 16 period was generally more favorable to option-premium-selling approaches as the market remained compressed. Directional systems tend to benefit from a different type of environment: sustained movement and range expansion.
Those regimes often alternate. Periods that are favorable for option-selling strategies can eventually transition into stronger directional markets, while directional systems can experience drawdowns during prolonged compression.
Monday’s breakout may represent the beginning of another such transition, making the next several sessions particularly important from a market-regime perspective.
Risk Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Actual results may differ materially from hypothetical results. Futures trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance, whether actual or hypothetical, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Drawdown figures are based on end-of-day calculations and do not reflect intraday drawdowns. Only risk capital should be used for futures trading.