Soybean Swing 2026 Update: New Exit Logic Improves a 20-Year Futures Strategy

The entries remain the same. The biggest change in the 2026 version of Soybean Swing is how the strategy exits long and short trades.

Soybean Swing is based on a trading pattern I have worked with for more than 25 years. The strategy has evolved over time as the soybean futures market itself has changed, but the underlying entry logic has remained remarkably durable.

In 2020, I updated the strategy primarily by changing the stop-loss structure, especially during the overnight session. That version has been tracked for several years. The new 2026 research goes one step further by keeping the same entries and testing different exit techniques.

The Original 2020 Soybean Swing Version

The 2020 version uses the conservative configuration rather than the more aggressive variation. It includes a $400 stop during the day session and a $1,000 stop during the overnight session, with no profit target, no day-trade exit, and no Friday exit.

Using $25 round-turn slippage and commission, the historical test from August 1, 2006 produced:

• Total Net Profit: $63,918.75
• Average Trade: approximately $100
• Maximum Drawdown: $5,237.50
• Net Profit / Maximum Drawdown: approximately 1,220%

By increasing both the day and overnight stop losses to $1,200, the performance improved further.

• Total Net Profit: $89,587.50
• Number of Trades: 615
• Percent Profitable: approximately 71%
• Average Trade: approximately $145
• Net Profit / Maximum Drawdown: approximately 1,448%

That test showed that simply allowing the market more room could improve the historical efficiency of the strategy. But the 2026 variation goes beyond changing the stop size.

What Changed in the 2026 Version?

The entry logic remains the same.

The major change is the exit logic used on long trades versus short trades.

The rationale is based on the long-side bias historically present in soybeans. Instead of immediately exiting a profitable long trade at the next profitable open, the strategy gives that trade more time and room to develop.

Short trades are handled differently. The strategy continues to use the First Profitable Open technique on the short side, allowing it to take a relatively quick profit rather than trying to hold the trade for an extended move.

2026 Soybean Swing Backtest Results

Using the updated exit structure and $25 round-turn slippage and commission, the TradeStation performance summary showed:

Metric	Result
Total Net Profit	$136,243
Number of Trades	561
Percent Profitable	59.71%
Average Trade Net Profit	$242.86
Maximum Drawdown	$8,562.50
Net Profit / Maximum Drawdown	1,591%

The most important improvement is the increase in average trade net profit.

For modern futures markets, a $100 average trade can be relatively small once commissions, slippage, and execution uncertainty are considered. Increasing the historical average trade to approximately $243 provides considerably more margin for those real-world trading costs.

Sometimes Boring Is Good

Soybeans are not the Nasdaq.

The strategy does not trade every day, and there can be extended periods when performance moves sideways. Some years have only a few dozen trades.

That can actually be useful from a portfolio perspective.

Many systematic traders are heavily concentrated in stock-index futures such as the Nasdaq. Adding a strategy based on an agricultural commodity introduces exposure to a completely different market, economic cycle, trading schedule, and price behavior.

In that context, the lower trading frequency of Soybean Swing can be a feature rather than a weakness.

This Is a Longer-Term Trading Strategy

Soybean Swing should not be evaluated based on what it does over the next month or two.

Historical performance shows extended cycles where the strategy can move sideways, followed by periods where it produces much stronger returns.

For example, there were relatively quiet periods during 2024 and 2025. In 2026, however, the strategy has generated approximately $13,150 in backtested profits through the period discussed in the video.

That does not mean a new profitable cycle will necessarily continue. It simply illustrates why a low-frequency swing strategy should generally be evaluated over a longer horizon rather than judged month by month.

Available for TradeStation, NinjaTrader, and MultiCharts

Soybean Swing is available for:

• TradeStation
• NinjaTrader 8
• MultiCharts

The strategy page includes historical performance information, current inputs, platform information, FAQs, and additional research going back as far as 1984.

Risk Disclosure

Futures trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. Past performance, whether actual or hypothetical, is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical or backtested performance results have inherent limitations and may not reflect actual trading conditions, liquidity, slippage, execution, or psychological factors experienced in live trading. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.