The Drawdown Entry Alert represents a mathematical entry point that reduces the distance from the current drawdown to the maximum drawdown. It is a point of entry where a trader who may have entered at equity peaks is ready to give up and throw in the towel.
From a sentiment and mathematical risk management perspective, it can be one of the best times to enter into a portfolio.
This month the VIX has dipped to holiday levels not since Christmas 2025. The Nasdaq 100 futures have spent 18 days trading first above the August 4th high and then below the August 4th low. We can see the sloppy price action in the charts.
The cycle of trend - congestion - trend - congestion, is clearly in an extended congestion stage. The economic reports, NVDA, Jackson Hole, Kevin Warsh along with geopolitics or interest rates haven't budged the market the entire month after the big bounce we saw from July 30 - August 4th.
The day session chart below shows the prices trading for the last 18 days barely above the August 4th high and then barely below low. One day of range on August 4th had nearly the same range as the last 18 days.
We can also see it in the equity curves of the portfolios noted below.
A sloppy and random market can sometimes be challenging to trade regardless of your methodology.
The 18 System Portfolio, 7 System Portfolio, 3 System Portfolio, and 2 System Portfolio are all in recommended drawdown entry alert levels. The risk to worse case drawdown here is lower than it is at equity peaks or during average drawdowns. This isn't a guarantee that it will bounce and as markets increase in index levels over time, we expect an expansion in max drawdown levels.
The drawdown levels can be seen in the Portfolio Metrics tool.
For example, when starting the 18 System Portfolio NQ at equity peaks, the risk to worse case closed trade drawdown is 61,345. The risk to worse drawdown at the current drawdown level is about 15,000. This is similar to a "buy the dip" approach.
Each Portfolio setup has been updated through 8/28/2026 with $25 round turn slippage and commission.
Eighteen System Portfolio
Current Drawdown = 46,470
Max Closed Trade Drawdown = 61,345
Seven System Portfolio
Current Drawdown = 36,650
Max Closed Trade Drawdown = 50,205
Three System Portfolio
Current Drawdown = 10,230
Max Closed Trade Drawdown = 21,135
Two System Portfolio
Current Drawdown = 16,750
Max Closed Trade Drawdown = 22,610
Snap backs can happen quickly. New Portfolio subscriptions today can be setup before Monday's trade.
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