Ÿ“ˆ How Does the Nasdaq 100 Trade on FOMC Days?
2024 has been a standout year, posting the largest annual gain on FOMC Days—by a factor of two—compared to the next most profitable year since 2016.
Ÿ“Š The Test:
We tested a simple strategy:
œ… Go long Nasdaq 100 futures at midnight on FOMC Day
œ… Exit at the close 4:55 pm EST.
Since 2020, this pattern has become increasingly profitable, as markets have perceived Federal Reserve policy statements as bullish, particularly post-pandemic, with 2024 being the most profitable.
Ÿ” Key Observations:
2024 Bull Market's Unique Feature: Net gains are occurring during the least liquid trading periods.
Specific windows contributing to gains:
Evening sessions (4:00 PM to 9:30 AM EST)
Holidays, election weeks, and FOMC Days—times traditionally viewed as choppy and illiquid.
At the end of November, data revealed that more than 100% of 2024's net gains came from the evening session alone.
Ÿš¨ The Big Question:
How solid is a bull market that establishes the majority of its gains during low-liquidity periods?
The 2024 bull market is rewriting the rulebook on where and when market gains occur. Is this a sign of resilience—or vulnerability?
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