Stock Indexes are racing back to all-time highs with a FOMO pace. This rally for the bulls seems "too good to be true". I've learned that when it seems too good to be true, it is one of two things: 1.) It is too good to be true, market crashes 2.) Fed liquidity is increasing, stay long.
This is the reason that we stay with our short term trading systems. The second scenario seems to persist since 2009. We have short term algorithms that take long and short trades but have a slight bias to the long side still. I would not be surprised to see the market surge again tomorrow to strike new all-time highs on the stock indexes.
We posted the Feds balance sheet yesterday and how it is "creeping higher".
The old norm in markets was that markets go up on the escalator and down on the elevator, meaning that the market goes up slowly and down quickly.
The new norm seems to be the opposite: markets go up on the elevator (quickly), and down on the escalator (slowly). This new norm seems to be an effect of the accumulation of the Fed liquidity over the years creating an additional wealth effect/asset "liquidity" along with the perception that the market would be rescued if it goes down.
What is really unusual, in my opinion, based on this type of price action, is that puts are still more expensive than calls.
Since the March 31 session low, the Nasdaq 100 futures have rallied over 3000 points in half a month with over 1100 points from yesterday's session low through today's session high.
Sharp persistent trends can be easier to capture with many long signals taking the portfolios to equity peaks.
All portfolios in our tracking hit equity peaks today except for the 50K Portfolio.
Hypothetical Trading System Signals on 04-14-2026
25 System Portfolio NQ =+$22,005
7 System Portfolio NQ = +$10,405
3 System Portfolio NQ = +$6,720
2 System Portfolio NQ = +$1,945
Stock Index Portfolio 18 = +$22,305
Diversified Portfolio 57 (NQ Only) = +$27,215
Silver Portfolio = +$9,675
50K Portfolio (Micros) = $1,521 (without Gold and Silver)
The Excel Portfolio Calculator has been updated through today and can be downloaded here.
Portfolio Metrics is updated through today.
Contact Us with any questions on the portfolios.