From the March 31 low through yesterday’s high, the Nasdaq 100 futures has rallied approximately 4,600 points. During that move, even a 100-point mean-reversion pullback in Nasdaq 100 futures has been difficult to capture. This type of persistent trend can create a challenging short-term environment for strategies designed to exploit intraday reversions, such as our V-Reversal trading systems. At the same time, mean-reversion portfolios can provide diversification relative to traditional trend following and equity investments, both of which often perform well during strong directional trends. It is also important to keep in mind that many of the strongest trend-following environments require holding positions overnight, while the stock index portfolios are day-trade-only programs.
So far in 2026, we went from noisy news to an unprecedented trend cycle. The traditional view is that markets trend roughly 20% to 30% of the time and spend the majority of the time in more rotational or mean-reverting conditions. That has not been the case this month. The intraday price action has been unusually one-directional and has made it difficult for mean-reversion strategies to capture normal pullbacks.
The pattern since March 31 seems to be 1-2 sideways days at most and then higher. The sequence will eventually be disrupted but the strength of the uptrend has been unprecedented on an intra-day basis. With 5 of the 7 Mag 7 stocks earnings reports on Wednesday and Thursday, anything can happen.
I anticipate we will have a cycle of more traditional mean reversion price action.
Hypothetical Trading System Signals on 04-27-2026
25 System Portfolio NQ = -$4,780
7 System Portfolio NQ = -$970
3 System Portfolio NQ = -$1,440
2 System Portfolio NQ = -$1,440
Stock Index Portfolio 18 = -$4,385
Diversified Portfolio 57 (NQ Only) = -$4,385
Silver Portfolio = -$2,290
50K Portfolio (Micros) = -$870 (without Gold and Silver)