The market pattern today was similar to yesterday. The chop at the beginning of the day lasted longer than it did yesterday before the dip buyers found a reason to jump in and move the market higher. It's been a choppy downtrend and with all the counter trend rallies, there have been only two days that traded above the previous day's high based on the 24 hour session in the Nasdaq 100 futures.
The massive intra-day surges the last two days have not taken out the previous days high and with two trading days left in the week, the Nasdaq closed near the middle of Monday's range which was a Key Reversal Day. Will the dip buyers get momentum to mean revert Monday's sell off or is the inability of the market to more quickly reverse, a bearish dynamic that will generate more selling into Friday.
The one-minute bar that ended at 10:01 am EST in the Nasdaq 100 futures had a range of 144.5 points while the Nasdaq was up 209.75 on the day. There was another 144 point move lower that lasted 3 minutes, ending at 1:10 pm EST. The ratio of the net gain or loss in relation to all the back and forth price action must be at an all-time low based on the denominator being so high. Finding a way to measure this is on my list.
The Zig Zag Count Indicator has some of the highest readings that it has had in a long time. It measures the number of 1/3% moves intra-day. Today there were 29. Tuesday there were 36 and Wednesday there were 27. Last year, it was typical to see this number at 3 or 4 and recently this number has been around 10 on average this year.
The One Million MNS/250K Portfolio traded Sibilance NQ. It was down -0.39% on the day or -$780 in the 250K Portfolio. Thursday and Friday can provide clarity with more decisive price action. We look forward to seeing how the market trades the final two days this week.
The hypothetical results for the Stock Index Portfolio 10 was -$7375 today with 1/10th on the Micro. The drawdown has been straight down this week with the high Zig Zag Counts. Out initial adjustment will be to remove Chop II NEWS and add Open Range NQ. Turning off Chop II NEWS NQ and waiting for a drawdown in Open Range NQ before adding it while this update is verified is the best approach.
The hypothetical results for the Top 50 Select Portfolio was down -8,342.50. We are pausing this portfolio in as of 3/5/2025. It was released on March 27, 2024. The out of sample results for the hypothetical signals were +$129,185 from April 1 through December 31, 2024. This year, it is down -$62,232.50. We have been recommending the Two System NQ Portfolio the past several weeks.
The hypothetical results for the 50K Portfolio was -$1,015. We will be working on some adjustments for this portfolio.
The hypothetical results for the Two System Portfolio NQ was -$2,895 with one trade on V-Reversal.
The hypothetical results for the Five System Portfolio NQ was -$3,620 with one trade on V-Reversal and one trade on Gap Continuation 2019. NQ Chop II NEWS should be removed from this portfolio while we research the best adjustment.
The new driven market cycle started on October 15, 2024 by my measure.
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