The animal spirits were energized today after Austin Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, came out with comments on CNBC that were perceived more dovish to reverse Wednesday's FOMC statement/interview that were perceived as very hawkish. The Nasdaq tested 21,000 at 7:30 am EST before bouncing about 800 points. (We remember how it tested 20,000 in the December contract several times before the election) The initial strength of the rally was so strong that it was pacing a move to new all-time highs. The concern for a government shutdown seemed to stall the rally. If a continuing resolution passes by midnight or this weekend, we may see a gap up. We won't speculate on this and try to "buy on the close" but it will be interesting to see where the market opens up on Sunday night and if there will be a government shutdown going into Christmas. The bulls are anxious to get their Santa Claus rally. We are ready to trade it either way and could see some nice opportunities to short rallies once again in the new year.
At the end of the day, it was a counter trend trading day that had some nice gains early with some giveback at the end of the day as the market rolled over. The V-Reversal long was the trade of the day once again. The bearish quad witching setup was not there since the market had already sold off Wednesday and the news flow seemed to be the main driver to generate more dip buying. It will be interesting to see if the Nasdaq goes positive on the year for the day session with just five regular trading sessions left on the year. The latest numbers through today are:
The One Million MNS focused on Nasdaq strategies such as V-Reversal NQ and was up 0.25% while the 250K Portfolio was up $500 in live trading. The One Million MNS 101 (with Micro strategies) had a hypothetical gain of +0.44%. We continue to research these portfolios and strategies as the continued noise level is very high. The question to determine if we are in a new regime that needs adjustment with a new noise level as the new norm or will the market go back to pre-election trading (prior to 10/15/2024) after it "settles down". There are many late night/early morning research hours here at Capstone Trading Systems.
The Stock Index Portfolio 18 hypothetical gains were +$1,755 per E-mini and +$53 per Micro. The reason the Micro strategies were not up +$175 is based on the Micro Silver contract's loss and how the contract is 1/5th of the full contract instead of 1/10th.
Micro Bitcoin strategies have been sent out to portfolio subscribers. The Micro Bitcoin NightTrader was down -$200 and the Micro Bitcoin Breakout was +$240 on a nice short trade. The Micro Bitcoin results are also hypothetical.
The hypothetical results for the Top 50 Select Portfolio were: +$1,037.50
The hypothetical results for the 50K Portfolio were: -$50.00
The holiday trading days which we do not trade will be December 24th, (half day), December 25th (market closed), and January 1st (market closed).
The market internals were strong with all indexes up and the VIX down.
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