The market seems to be reaching a maximum level of "propping" and "bullying" to keep prices up. The strong selling at the open was quickly pre-empted with dip buying. The reversal happened so quickly, the V-Reversals entered at much higher prices than they normally would based on the speed of the reversal. The market then "fixed" prices with the liquidity dip buying to create what looked like an uptrend with the Advance Decline line moving from -354, surging to +1,383. The price action was poised to go higher after the reversal but dumped and reversed several times before dumping into the close and then constantly supporting 20,500 after several flash moves below 20,500 on after hours earnings between 16:00 and 16:10.
Overall, it was some of the worse price action for our strategies we have experienced all year and one of the worse days for the program. It's been a long time since it has felt like the market was attacking all of the strategies in all markets all day long. Our Momentum Reversal kept one short trade until 16:10 exiting in the 20,540 area on the Nasdaq. Right after we exited our last short trade at the end of the day, the market finally dropped below 20,500. Starting at 16:00 there were flashy moves below 20,500 but they rebounded quickly. After we exited our short, the market calmly moved below 20,500.
We had been mostly long all day with some of our bigger long positions in the E-mini S&P and E-mini Nasdaq as the market sagged against us after the initial rally. When we were finally net short the market at the end of the day, the market quickly regained its bid against us and started flashing higher to reverse until we exited our end of day shorts.
The price action feels very predatory as there are many violent reversals against most trades. On days like today the market seems to try to disguise and defend against a correction. At the same time, the Nasdaq seems to love 20,500 and seems to be pinned to that level with option writing.
The One Million MNS 129 was down -2.25% on the day while the 250K Portfolio was down -$4,500 in live trading. The live results on the month for the 250K Portfolio are approximately -2.0%. We were almost at breakeven after yesterday's trade and looking for a positive +2% day. This month has been harsh with really difficult price action for longer and sooner into the pre-election trade than we anticipated. Tomorrow is the last day of trading day of the month and typically a big losing day can be followed by an equal or larger winning day. We will risk 1% to give us room to rebound and capture the cycle of favorable price action on the last day of the month after such a long cycle of unfavorable price action.
The Stock Index Portfolio 18 recently rebounded after it made a worse case drawdown. The One Million MNS 129 has made a worse case drawdown on the hypothetical results. With our risk management, we have kept the losses to -2% on the month as we have waited for a drawdown entry point so that we can endure worse case drawdowns so that we can trade for the bounce. The biggest day the One Million MNS 129 has had in recent hypothetical data was +49K on 9/11/2024. This occurred after a losing streak.
The Stock Index Portfolio 18 hypothetical results fared better and were -$2,687.50 per E-mini and -299.50 per Micro. Cobra CT III was down -$937.50 on the E-mini S&P but -$122.50 on the Micro. The Momentum Reversal NQ was the top strategy today as well as yesterday, capturing over 250 points the last two days and was the highlight capturing the long trade yesterday and short trade today. This portfolio gave back about 2/3rds of yesterday's gains.
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