This past August, there was some really nice trading opportunities across the board in the portfolios. It was a stretch I missed on medical leave but it was a nice move that subscribers were able to capture. What happened in August? A nice pullback in the stock indexes and a jump in the VIX similar to what we had today that started on Friday, August 2nd (after a July 31st FOMC meeting). One of my recent considerations was to wait for more volatility to enter the markets to start trading the stock indexes again. We had the volatility surge we were looking for today on FOMC. We did not trade today on FOMC, although, there were many nice short signals in the E-mini S&P strategies this afternoon such as Adaptive Moving Average and Tick Pulse.
Some interesting notes, as of yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 was up about 500 points on the year for the day session Close to Open. The day session close to open had been negative on the year at the end of November. The day session point gain on the year turned negative again today. The Nasdaq 100 is up 4383 points on the year while 4601 is overnight and -218 is in the day session. The day session trend has been negative all year and had finally turned positive this month, the gains were all given back on the sell off today. We question the sustainability of the overall trend based on this market dynamic which we haven't seen since 2007 and reminisce on how 2018 ended. It would take about more 5 days like today to give back all the gains on the year.
The bears have been working the market all month with the S&P 500 market breadth down all month and the Dow Jones posting its 10th losing day in a row, which hasn't happened since 1974 - a half century ago when Richard Nixon was president. Jay Powells nervous uncertainty today led to a broader sell off.
Additionally, we note that today was mean reverting to the constant "bid it up pattern" we have seen all year on low volume time periods. Yesterday, we discussed some FOMC strategies that had done well simply going long at midnight on FOMC day. The market has been too one-sided and today made sense. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow holds.
Regardless of what the market does next, we are glad to see some volatility and trends in the market and will trade the 14 Nasdaq day trade strategies in the One Million MNS 101. There are 17 NQ strategies in the One Million MNS. We are removing the 3 SR Countertrends and will also look for opportunities to sync up with all strategies in the One Million MNS 101 now that the markets are moving. I was hoping to have some more opportunities to short rallies before we had this type of rollover. If the sell off continues, we may have opportunities to short momentum or gap continuations lower.
We keep both long and short strategies in place and continue to recommend the Stock Index Portfolio 18, Top 50 Select, and 50K Portfolio along with the One Million MNS as well as our Auto Trade - Gap Continuation and V-Reversal portfolio.
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